Midwest Refineries Go Dark as Gas Tops $4.89 in Michigan

Drivers in Michigan woke to gas at $4.89 per gallon on Friday, up from $4.75 the day before and $3.21 a year earlier. The jump felt sudden because it came right after oil companies posted record profits. Now the same pumps ask for more.

The Great Lakes could see higher prices in the coming hours. Ohio sits at high risk for the largest bump in the region. Wisconsin and Indiana face medium risk of a moderate jump. Michigan and Illinois are at low to medium risk of seeing gas go past $5 per gallon. These same states are likely to see a moderate to large jump in diesel prices too.

Overnight, gas prices rose 7 cents in Illinois and Wisconsin, 8 cents in Indiana, 14 cents in Michigan, 2 cents in Ohio, and 3 cents across the nation. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, raised the risk of a price jump in Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana to “elevated.” He warned of “additional likelihood of further price increases in the Great Lakes.” When asked about timing, he said, “These hikes would likely skew more towards tomorrow.” Then he added, “I’d look for them to start hitting tomorrow, but timing may vary.”

I keep thinking about the summer of 2008, when Midwest drivers watched prices climb as refineries stumbled and crude spiked. That year taught a hard lesson: when supply tightens in one place, the pain shows up at the pump in another. Today’s map looks familiar. The pattern holds where refineries sit idle. It breaks where the cause is not crude scarcity but a chain of outages, maintenance, and labor fights.

Exxon Mobil’s Joliet refinery in Illinois has been offline since Thursday after a power outage on Sunday tied to problems on ComEd’s power lines. The Joliet plant can process 275,000 barrels per day and produces about 11 million gallons of gasoline and diesel each day. That is a lot of fuel to lose while prices are already moving up.

Up north, Canadian company Cenovus has planned major maintenance from September through mid-October at its Lima refinery in Ohio. That work could reduce regional gasoline supplies when the region can least afford it. In Indiana, BP Whiting is embroiled in a labor dispute that could cause future disruptions or a full shutdown. Three plants. Three different reasons. One result: less fuel in the tanks that feed the Great Lakes.

Nationwide, gas averaged $4.47 per gallon as of Friday morning, up from $2.98 on February 28. In Ohio, drivers paid a statewide average of $4.53 per gallon on Friday, up from $3.08 a year earlier. Wisconsin sat at $4.41 per gallon on Friday, up from $2.92 a year earlier. Indiana hit $4.00 per gallon on Friday, up from $3.92 on Thursday and $3.09 a year earlier. Illinois reached $4.85 per gallon on Friday, up from $3.42 a year earlier. Texas is now the cheapest state for gas at $3.95 per gallon, replacing Indiana.

The context around these numbers is messy. Global oil supply has been hit by the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A recent Saudi pipeline attack by Yemeni Houthis added pressure. Those events push crude higher, and crude pushes pumps. But the Midwest story also turns on local outages and schedules. How much of this rise comes from geopolitics, and how much from refinery trouble, is not settled. I treat the geopolitical piece as a steady wind. I treat the refinery piece as the gust that tips the car.

This is where precedent helps and where it fails. In past cycles, a single large refinery going offline could lift regional prices by several cents within days. That part fits. What feels different now is the stacking: a power failure, planned maintenance, and a labor dispute all at once. When risks stack, the market prices in the chance of more outages, not just the ones that have happened.

President Donald Trump has spoken about energy costs in broad terms, calling high prices “a very inexpensive price to pay” in the context of wider policy aims. That line lands oddly at a pump where every cent is felt. Policy can move supply over time. It does not fix a compressor that tripped on Sunday or a union table that has not reached a deal.

For drivers in the Great Lakes, the near term looks tight. If De Haan’s timing holds, the next wave of hikes would likely show up first in Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Ohio could see the largest bump if Cenovus maintenance bites harder than expected. Michigan and Illinois could cross $5 per gallon if diesel climbs alongside gasoline and if Joliet stays offline. None of this is certain. The pattern says it could happen.

I watch the diesel line as closely as the regular unleaded. Diesel moves trucks, farm equipment, and heating oil in colder months. A moderate to large jump there would ripple beyond the pump. It would show up in grocery bills and freight rates. That is the part of the precedent that never changes: when fuel costs rise, everything that moves costs more.

The unresolved piece is how long these refinery issues last. Joliet’s return depends on power stability and internal checks. Cenovus maintenance has an end date in mid-October, but the market will price in slippage. BP Whiting’s labor dispute could resolve quickly or drag on. Each day of uncertainty adds a small premium to the price you see on the sign.

There is also the question of whether more states join the list. Texas sits at $3.95 per gallon, the cheapest in the nation. That gap between the South and the Great Lakes has widened. If Gulf Coast refineries run clean and Midwest plants keep tripping, the gap could widen more. If Gulf plants hiccup, the national average at $4.47 per gallon could climb again.

I do not know where this ends. I know what the map says today. I know what the pattern did before when supply tightened and when it did not. The next move belongs to the plants that are dark, the crews at the table, and the winds in the Strait. The rest of us watch the numbers and wait.