Oil Won't Drop Until After the Midterms, Trump Says
President Donald Trump told reporters this week that oil prices will not come down until after the midterm elections.
President Donald Trump told reporters this week that oil prices will not come down until after the midterm elections. The war against Iran, now in its seventh month, will end “immediately after the election,” he said. Oil prices climbed higher following the latest flare-up in hostilities between Washington and Tehran. Global benchmark Brent crude futures traded above $101 per barrel for the first time since July. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures surpassed $96 per barrel at session highs.
Trump claimed record-breaking gas prices will fall below $2 per gallon, but not until after the early November midterms. That is nearly two months away. “Right after the election, oil prices will tumble downward,” President Donald Trump said at Joint Base Andrews before heading to Texas for the Republican Party midterm convention. He added, “They can’t hold out any longer.”
The U.S. military said its forces have destroyed 10 Iranian tankers in the last week. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has taken credit for destroying oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Shipping routes are under attack. Supply fears are real. Markets do not like uncertainty. They price it in fast.
Trump framed the conflict in electoral terms. “Say: ‘Will you let Iran have a nuclear weapon?’ Answer: no,” President Donald Trump said. He suggested Iran seeks to benefit from an election outcome unfavorable to Trump by leaving them alone and letting them have their nuclear weapon. “They want to affect the election; we won’t let them have a nuclear weapon,” President Donald Trump said.
I have spent thirty years watching markets. I count the money twice. I remember 2000 and 2008. The pattern rhymes when politics meets pain at the pump. An announcement timed to the election calendar is not a market forecast. It is a message to voters.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, offered a different view. “I don’t see any guarantees that prices will fall soon,” Patrick De Haan said. Analysts warn that even if the war ended, relief would not show up right away. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz would take weeks to normalize. Pre-war prices could take longer than a year to return.
Brent crude settled at $101.21 a barrel on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate rose to $96.05 a barrel. Both closed at their highest since May 22. Oil has been above $100 in the physical market since early September. That is not a guess. That is what traders paid.
Gas prices hit a record $4.15 a gallon over Labor Day, up 30% year over year. Only eight out of roughly 150,000 gas stations nationwide sold gas below $2 earlier this year, according to De Haan. The gap between $4.15 and $2 is wide. It does not close because someone says it will.
Markets move on supply, demand, and risk. War adds risk. Risk adds a premium. The premium shows up at the pump. Voters feel it in their weekly budget. Inflation does not care about speeches. It cares about what people pay.
Trump acknowledged the spike. He said energy prices would remain elevated until after the elections. Then they would tumble. The timing is precise. Relief arrives after voters have cast ballots. That is convenient for an incumbent party. It is not how markets work.
I do not trade on promises. I trade on what clears. Oil cleared above $100. Gas cleared above $4. Those are the facts. The rest is a forecast tied to a date on the calendar. Forecasts fail. Dates slip. Wars drag.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to stay constrained through the end of 2026. Output from some producers may remain low into 2027. That is not political. That is logistics. Pipelines, ports, and tankers move at their own pace.
Trump said the war would end very shortly after the election. He said Iran is hanging out for dear life, hoping that the U.S. loses so they can deal with Democrats and get their nuclear bomb. He said the U.S. is not going to let that happen. Strong words. Markets have heard strong words before.
What matters is what happens next. If fighting eases, risk fades, and flows return, prices can drop. If attacks continue, premiums stay, and pain persists. No one knows which path we take. The president says one thing. Analysts say another. The market says what it says at the close.
I keep my ledger simple. Oil above $100. Gas above $4. A war in month seven. An election in early November. A promise of relief after the vote. That is the story. The rest is noise.